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[title] => ‘Pripremite se jer ćemo oboriti sve toplinske rekorde! Ono što slijedi zadnji put se dogodilo 1998. godine...‘
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Zemlju će zadesiti el niño, prirodni fenomen koji donosi vlažno i kišovito vrijeme te poplave u inače suhim područjima Južne Amerike te sušno razdoblje u području Indonezije i dovodi do, prema novijim istraživanjima, zagrijavanja oceanske vode za dva do osam stupnjeva Celzija, piše Jutarnji list.
Nacionalna oceanska i atmosferska administracija (NOAA), američka znanstvena i regulatorna agencija zadužena za prognoziranje vremena te nadgledanje prilika u oceanima i atmosferi, prošlog je tjedna ustvrdila da se el niño formira te da će zamijeniti la niñu, njegovu hladniju "sestru".
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Politico navodi da el niño može izazivati poplave, ciklone, suše i požar, ali i da će tijekom narednih tri do pet godina (toliko obično traje el niño) pasti rekordi za najviše temperature zraka na Zemlji. Svjetska meteorološka organizacija prošlog je tjedna upozorila da vjerojatnost da će godišnje globalne prosječne temperature između 2023. i 2027. barem jednom biti veće od jedno i pol postotnog povećanja u odnosu na predindustrijsko doba.
Carlo Buontempo, čelnik europskog svemirskog programa Kopernika, sustava za globalno praćenje okoliša i sigurnost, rekao je da je taj podatak alarmantan jer je period od 2015. do 2023. godine, unatoč tome što je Zemlju tijekom posljednje tri godine hladila la niña, bio najtopliji ikad.
El niño će najgore pogoditi regije pored Tihog oceana - zapadne dijelove Sjeverne i Južne Amerike, Japan, Australiju te Novi Zeland. Posljednji el niño, koji je bio aktivan od 2014. do 2016., doveo je do pojavljivanja razornih uragana na sjeveru Tihog oceana te nestašice vode na Karibima i sušu u Etiopiji. Australiju su u tom periodu zadesili toplinski udari i veliki požari, a Peru su pogodile velike poplave i erozija obale. El niño zna smanjiti rizik od uragana u Atlantskom Oceanu.
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Što se tiče Europe, ona neće iskusiti najopasnije posljedice pojave el niña. Međutim, to ne znači da će pobjeći od klimatskih promjena, pogotovo ako ovaj el niño bude jedan od jačih. Općenito gledano, ako globalne temperature porastu, zimske kiše postanu učestalija pojava na jugu Europe, a zime na sjeveru kontinenta postanu hladnije i suvlje.
Zemlje koje iskuse najgore od onog što el niño sa sobom donosi najčešće dožive pad poljoprivredne proizvodnje. El niño zna dovesti i do pada količine ribe u Tihom oceanu. Organizacija za prehranu i poljoprivredu Ujedinjenih naroda (FAO) upozorila je da će prehrambena nesigurnost biti akutna pojava u južnoj Africi, središnjoj Americi, Karibima i dijelovima Azije. FAO je rekao da bi moglo doći i do pada proizvodnje žitarica.
El niño bi mogao biti i skuplji no što se to prije mislilo. Znanstvenici s Dartmoutha Christopher Callahan i Justin Mankin rekli su da će el niño globalnu ekonomiju u prosjeku koštati oko 3,4 bilijuna dolara. Topla faza el niña između 1997. i 1998. koštala je 5,7 bilijuna dolara. Callahan i Mankin kažu da bi se utjecaj el niña mogao osjetiti tijekom narednih 14 godina, piše Jutarnji list.
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Zemlju će zadesiti el niño, prirodni fenomen koji donosi vlažno i kišovito vrijeme te poplave u inače suhim područjima Južne Amerike te sušno razdoblje u području Indonezije i dovodi do, prema novijim istraživanjima, zagrijavanja oceanske vode za dva do osam stupnjeva Celzija, piše Jutarnji list.
Nacionalna oceanska i atmosferska administracija (NOAA), američka znanstvena i regulatorna agencija zadužena za prognoziranje vremena te nadgledanje prilika u oceanima i atmosferi, prošlog je tjedna ustvrdila da se el niño formira te da će zamijeniti la niñu, njegovu hladniju "sestru".
---
---
Politico navodi da el niño može izazivati poplave, ciklone, suše i požar, ali i da će tijekom narednih tri do pet godina (toliko obično traje el niño) pasti rekordi za najviše temperature zraka na Zemlji. Svjetska meteorološka organizacija prošlog je tjedna upozorila da vjerojatnost da će godišnje globalne prosječne temperature između 2023. i 2027. barem jednom biti veće od jedno i pol postotnog povećanja u odnosu na predindustrijsko doba.
Carlo Buontempo, čelnik europskog svemirskog programa Kopernika, sustava za globalno praćenje okoliša i sigurnost, rekao je da je taj podatak alarmantan jer je period od 2015. do 2023. godine, unatoč tome što je Zemlju tijekom posljednje tri godine hladila la niña, bio najtopliji ikad.
El niño će najgore pogoditi regije pored Tihog oceana - zapadne dijelove Sjeverne i Južne Amerike, Japan, Australiju te Novi Zeland. Posljednji el niño, koji je bio aktivan od 2014. do 2016., doveo je do pojavljivanja razornih uragana na sjeveru Tihog oceana te nestašice vode na Karibima i sušu u Etiopiji. Australiju su u tom periodu zadesili toplinski udari i veliki požari, a Peru su pogodile velike poplave i erozija obale. El niño zna smanjiti rizik od uragana u Atlantskom Oceanu.
---
---
Što se tiče Europe, ona neće iskusiti najopasnije posljedice pojave el niña. Međutim, to ne znači da će pobjeći od klimatskih promjena, pogotovo ako ovaj el niño bude jedan od jačih. Općenito gledano, ako globalne temperature porastu, zimske kiše postanu učestalija pojava na jugu Europe, a zime na sjeveru kontinenta postanu hladnije i suvlje.
Zemlje koje iskuse najgore od onog što el niño sa sobom donosi najčešće dožive pad poljoprivredne proizvodnje. El niño zna dovesti i do pada količine ribe u Tihom oceanu. Organizacija za prehranu i poljoprivredu Ujedinjenih naroda (FAO) upozorila je da će prehrambena nesigurnost biti akutna pojava u južnoj Africi, središnjoj Americi, Karibima i dijelovima Azije. FAO je rekao da bi moglo doći i do pada proizvodnje žitarica.
El niño bi mogao biti i skuplji no što se to prije mislilo. Znanstvenici s Dartmoutha Christopher Callahan i Justin Mankin rekli su da će el niño globalnu ekonomiju u prosjeku koštati oko 3,4 bilijuna dolara. Topla faza el niña između 1997. i 1998. koštala je 5,7 bilijuna dolara. Callahan i Mankin kažu da bi se utjecaj el niña mogao osjetiti tijekom narednih 14 godina, piše Jutarnji list.
---
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Markku Ulander/Afp
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12. svibanj 2024 08:58
