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[title] => Slabe struje u Atlantskom oceanu signaliziraju velike promjene, potencijalni kolaps sustava mogao bi imati ozbiljne posljedice za cijeli svijet
[alias] => slabe-struje-u-atlantskom-oceanu-signaliziraju-velike-promjene
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Sustav struja Atlantskog oceana, motor klime na sjevernoj hemisferi, mogao bi oslabiti do te mjere da bi uskoro moglo doći do velikih globalnih vremenskih promjena, pokazala je znanstvena studija u četvrtak.
Sjevernoatlantska meridijalna cirkulacija (AMOC) veliki je sustav oceanskih struja, uključujući Golfsku struju koja prenosi toplu vodu iz tropskih krajeva prema sjeveru Atlantika.
S obzirom na to da se atmosfera zagrijava zbog porasta emisije stakleničkih plinova, ispod površine oceana zadržava se više topline i potencijalni kolaps sustava mogao bi imati ozbiljne posljedice za vremenske sustave u svijetu.
Klimatski modeli su pokazali da je AMOC najslabiji u više od 1000 godina. Međutim, nije poznato je li došlo do slabljenja zbog promjene u cirkulaciji ili zbog manjka stabilnosti.
Studija, objavljena u časopisu Nature Climate Change, pokazuje da se radi o krucijalnoj razlici.
"Gubitak dinamičke stabilnosti ukazivao bi da se AMOC približio kritičnome pragu iza kojeg bi moglo doći do značajnog i u praksi vjerojatno nepovratnog prijelaza u slabiji mod rada", rekao je autor studije Miklas Boers s Potstdamskog instituta za istraživanje utjecaja klime.
Analizirajući modele temperature i saliniteta površine Atlantskog oceana, studija kaže da bi se slabljenje AMOC-a u prošlom stoljeću moglo povezati s gubitkom stabilnosti.
"Rezultati podupiru procjenu da opadanje AMOC-a nije samo fluktacija ili linearni odgovor na rastuće temperature, nego vjerojatno znači približavanje kritičnog praga iza kojeg bi se sustav cirkulacije mogao urušiti", rekao je Boers.
Kad bi se AMOC srušio, pojačalo bi se hlađenje sjeverne hemisfere, podigla bi se razina Atlantskog oceana, povećale ukupne oborine iznad Europe i Sjeverne Amerike i došlo bi do pomicanja monsuna na Južnu Ameriku i Afriku, objavila je britanska meteorološka služba Met Office.
Drugi klimatski modeli predviđaju da će AMOC oslabjeti tijekom nadolazećeg stoljeća, no da nije izvjestan kolaps prije 2100. godine.
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Sustav struja Atlantskog oceana, motor klime na sjevernoj hemisferi, mogao bi oslabiti do te mjere da bi uskoro moglo doći do velikih globalnih vremenskih promjena, pokazala je znanstvena studija u četvrtak.
Sjevernoatlantska meridijalna cirkulacija (AMOC) veliki je sustav oceanskih struja, uključujući Golfsku struju koja prenosi toplu vodu iz tropskih krajeva prema sjeveru Atlantika.
S obzirom na to da se atmosfera zagrijava zbog porasta emisije stakleničkih plinova, ispod površine oceana zadržava se više topline i potencijalni kolaps sustava mogao bi imati ozbiljne posljedice za vremenske sustave u svijetu.
Klimatski modeli su pokazali da je AMOC najslabiji u više od 1000 godina. Međutim, nije poznato je li došlo do slabljenja zbog promjene u cirkulaciji ili zbog manjka stabilnosti.
Studija, objavljena u časopisu Nature Climate Change, pokazuje da se radi o krucijalnoj razlici.
"Gubitak dinamičke stabilnosti ukazivao bi da se AMOC približio kritičnome pragu iza kojeg bi moglo doći do značajnog i u praksi vjerojatno nepovratnog prijelaza u slabiji mod rada", rekao je autor studije Miklas Boers s Potstdamskog instituta za istraživanje utjecaja klime.
Analizirajući modele temperature i saliniteta površine Atlantskog oceana, studija kaže da bi se slabljenje AMOC-a u prošlom stoljeću moglo povezati s gubitkom stabilnosti.
"Rezultati podupiru procjenu da opadanje AMOC-a nije samo fluktacija ili linearni odgovor na rastuće temperature, nego vjerojatno znači približavanje kritičnog praga iza kojeg bi se sustav cirkulacije mogao urušiti", rekao je Boers.
Kad bi se AMOC srušio, pojačalo bi se hlađenje sjeverne hemisfere, podigla bi se razina Atlantskog oceana, povećale ukupne oborine iznad Europe i Sjeverne Amerike i došlo bi do pomicanja monsuna na Južnu Ameriku i Afriku, objavila je britanska meteorološka služba Met Office.
Drugi klimatski modeli predviđaju da će AMOC oslabjeti tijekom nadolazećeg stoljeća, no da nije izvjestan kolaps prije 2100. godine.
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12. svibanj 2024 02:01
